Here are 6 predictions I’m not exactly comfortable making but I’ll make them anyway. Some are obvious, some are weird, and a few actively keep me up at night.
If you want to hear Brit, Dave, or Jess’ predictions, tune into this week’s episode of More or Less.
Market Signals & Takeaways
1. There Will Be Exactly One $500B+ IPO
Everyone’s talking about a new wave of mega-IPOs, but the reality is we’ll see exactly one. My money’s on SpaceX. OpenAI and Anthropic are in the running, but the timing and execution aren’t there yet. The market is still extremely narrow at the very top. There’s not a generational guard change in public markets; there’s just one open slot. Don’t get distracted by the hype—focus on the outlier.
2. Big Tech Will Be Weirdly Bifurcated
Expect to see Google up ~15%, Nvidia down ~15%, and Meta at all-time highs. Meta is the dark horse: the market doesn’t fully appreciate how much the AI ad stack is compounding in its favor. The next-gen ad workflow is end-to-end AI-driven, and Meta is the default winner as the stack matures.
3. Crypto Is Fine. That’s the Take.
Crypto had its “Trump bump,” but the narrative fizzled. No new killer narrative has taken over, and attention is split between AI and a bunch of financialized distractions. Crypto isn’t dead, but it’s not going vertical either. It’ll drift, maybe slightly up. (I do have one thing I’m bullish on in crypto for the next year, but I’m not ready to share it yet.)
4. Prediction Markets Are at a Fork in the Road
I’m genuinely torn. On one hand, there’s growing concern about gambling addiction, especially among young people (sports betting via prediction markets). That could trigger ugly regulation and cripple the space. On the other hand: Prediction markets could become more deeply woven into financial markets, as infrastructure for expressing views—if regulation stays lax, this could explode. We’re in an era of radical financialization, and the outcome here is highly uncertain.
5. AI Is About to Break the SaaS Model (For Real This Time)
The interface layer is now generatable. I’ve seen someone rebuild a complex SaaS UI in days, then open-source it. If you can generate your own interface on demand, what’s defensible about last decade’s SaaS businesses? Many new startups are betting the UI is a moat—I’m not so sure.
6. AI Porn Is About to Go Mainstream
AI-generated NSFW content is about to cross over from niche to normal. The models are getting good, and people are figuring out the product experience.