Why I Changed My Mind About Autonomous Vehicles
Yoni Rechtman
Context:
For years, I was a self-driving car skeptic. I believed AVs (autonomous vehicles) would never break out of the “always five years away” purgatory. Even if the tech worked in controlled settings, I thought it would never scale or matter in the real world. Now, with Waymo gearing up to launch in New York (a city I assumed would be dead last), it’s clear I was wrong. Here’s how my thinking failed, and what it means for all of us in tech and investing.
Market Signal:
Tech Progress: The rate of improvement in AV performance has dramatically outpaced expectations. Edge cases that seemed impossible are now routinely handled.
Public Tolerance: The public is more accepting of AVs than I predicted, largely because the technology is actually safer than I thought possible, and incidents are rare.
Political Climate: Instead of being mired in regulatory and activist quicksand, AVs are seeing growing support, and the opposition has been surprisingly ineffective.
Takeaways:
Never Underestimate Compounding Tech Progress: The “asymptote” I expected was actually just a temporary plateau. AVs leapt beyond “useful but niche” much faster than I thought.
Perfection Isn’t the Bar, Better Than Human Is Good Enough: I underestimated how quickly AVs would surpass human safety, and how the narrative could shift as a result.
Execution and Patience Win Political Buy-In: Waymo’s slow, methodical approach built trust and a constituency, in stark contrast to Uber’s “move fast and break things” playbook.